Russia turned on the first nuclear plant in 1954, and the majority of nuclear in the US was built during the 70s and 80s. At the time society was rapidly innovating- nuclear was seen as the energy of the future. During the ensuing thirty years this sentiment led to a rapid expansion of nuclear power plants in the most advanced countries- and then it all came to a stop. By 1990 growth in the number of reactors under construction around the globe had been plummeting for years, as shown in Chart 1. The nuclear revolution was over.
Growth in Asia
While nuclear power has clearly been out of favor in the West since the 1990s, the same can’t be said for Asia, where it has been surging since 2010. A desire for continued growth, improvement in living standards, political pragmatism, and technical education has spurred China to rapidly adopt nuclear power. According to the Economist there are ~20 nuclear reactors under construction in China, which amounts to an approximately 40% increase in total reactors (Chart 2).
The growth in China has been driven by a country that is rapidly growing. Standards of living, manufacturing base, high tech jobs, and education levels have all been increased rapidly since the 50s. Growth requires energy, and China has no plans to stop growing. Chart 1 shows nuclear power clearly starting a ‘comeback’ in new reactor constructions around 2010, when China chose to significantly invest in nuclear.
Lagging West
On the other side of the world, we have the complex slowdown in American and Western European nuclear plant construction, which might best be explained by saying, ‘we became comfortable.’ Most people in these societies have all the basics taken care of, so energy security and abundance gave way to other priorities. We became more concerned with consumption than production, and allowed energy intensive manufacturing to move over seas. Special interests, activism, lobbying- in other words, politics- became more pressing. Nowhere is this more clear than Germany.
Since 2011 the German Green Party has run and won on promises of shutting down the countries nuclear power plants. They’re delivered on this promise. Germany has next to no nuclear reactors operating, has greatly increased renewables, and has cut back on coal, natural gas, and lignite (see Chart 3). The anti-nuclear motive is confusing, why focus on that before coal and lignite?? Yet, the costs are now clear: dependence on foreign energy imports, less competitive manufacturing, and less power generated in total today than in 1990…
For a nuclear comeback to be in full effect, Germany, America, and other Western aligned nations will have to restart and build new reactors. As argued in the German (worst case) example, these societies became comfortable with their energy production and decided to focus on luxuries like higher cost renewables and enjoying the comfortable lives they led. The desire to consume more energy disappeared. Until now?
Signs of Hope
AI and big data have spurred the elite technocratic class in Silicon Valley to call for more energy- a lot more. We live in an age of Free-for-Data (FFD) services. Companies that serve billions of users incredibly useful applications for free, like Google and Facebook, hoover up our data and use it to make money. Storing, indexing, analyzing, and using the data takes a lot of energy. The bigger the data set, the better the AI model or advertising network, so these companies are incentivized to collect as much data as possible. They also want clean abundant energy to do all of this as cheaply and socially acceptably as possible. Enter Amazon, purchasing an immense data center right next to a nuclear power plant.
The future energy demand in the West that AI and big data has spurred speculation of is yet to be seen in nuclear new builds or restarts. Chart 4 shows a map of American nuclear plant announcements, pre-builds, and under construction. The pickings are slim. A new reactor was brought online during 2023 in Georgia (well over budget and timeline). Still signs of an American nuclear renaissance are there as exhibited by the Amazon data center play and the Biden administration vocally supporting the industry.1
Japanese Restarts
Another important Western aligned country is Japan. The Japanese nuclear fleet was inundated with shutdowns after the Fukushima accident in 2011. Public opinion and the relative comfort of society justified taking offline the majority of the islands domestic energy generation, forcing it to rely even more on coal, oil, and gas imports. Chart 5 clearly shows Japan chose a similar, though less criticized, path to Germany- increased reliance on imports, less competitive manufacturing, and less energy to go around today than there was in 2000.
Unlike Germany, though, Japan is showing clear signs of restarting the nuclear fleet. Perhaps the memories of Fukushima faded, concerns of energy security were raised, leaders got real about hitting climate goals, or the country decided it would like to start growing again.2 Since 2015 Japan has restarted 12 nuclear reactor units, and has 10 under review to be restarted (Chart 6). The Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant is one of the largest in the world, and has begun restarts, a clear sign of the changing times in Japan, and possibly Western allies.
The Renaissance is Just Beginning
All things considered, it appears nuclear is starting a comeback. China and other Eastern powers have been rapidly building new reactors since 2010, and the West appears to be near a bottom in social sentiment. Germany pushed things too far, and will most likely be restarting their nuclear fleet in the not too distant future. Japan’s restart is already underway. The US nuclear fleet (still largest in the world) has seen politicians and big tech come out in favor of more nuclear, along with the high profile Diablo Canyon extension in extremely pro-renewable California.
No renaissance will be complete without the US and Europe fully embracing nuclear as the solution to climate change goals. However, public and political opinion appears to be rather quickly swinging pro-nuclear, suggesting future restarts and construction. One thing is clear- if countries want to hit their emission reduction goals without reducing their energy consumption, nuclear is a must.
- See the recent Office of Nuclear Energy press release. ↩︎
- There is a clear correlation between growth and energy usage. More energy allows for a society to produce more goods and services, all else constant. ↩︎
